Latest population projections
Change over 25 years for selected age groups in Lincolnshire
Source: ONS Population Projections May 2014. Our Population Projection toolkit provides easy access to the Projections data for Lincolnshire. (And there are some additional resources on Ageing in the UK on the ONS website).
The Importance of Population
Knowing both the population size and demography of an area, and understanding how it is changing, are both important factors for any organisation operating in that area. This is particularly the case for those delivering services to the populace both now and into the future, and also those that need to attract or draw down the right amount of government funding.
The way we live our lives has changed considerably from a time where people tended to be born, live and die in the same area.
Nowadays a more mobile population globally, as well as nationally and locally as a result of work or education, means that producing and interpreting population and migration statistics has become increasingly challenging.
There are numerous sources of information on population and population change.
Care must be taken to avoid confusion as to what figures to use, and to also avoid mixed messages about Lincolnshire's population, how it is changing, and what it will look like in the future.
Measuring Lincolnshire's Population
There are many ways to count the population, such as usual resident population, day or night time population, service user population, and so on depending on the need. Population data provided by the LRO is mainly sourced from national statistics along with the GP registered population. The four main types of population measures are shown in the following table:
||What it is
||How often it is updated
|Mid-Year Population Estimates
||Population estimates from the Census are updated each year to produce mid-year population estimates for the years in between each Census.
||These figures show numbers of people registered with a general practice. They will differ from the ONS Mid-Year population estimates, although they are factored into them.
||The census makes every effort to include everyone and aims to show an actual count of residents on census day.
||Historically, every ten years
||ONS population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration.
||Every two years
The census conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a count of all people and households, and has taken place every 10 years since 1801. It is the most complete source of information we have about the population. The most recent Census was held on Sunday 27th March 2011.
The census makes every effort to include everyone and aims to show an actual count of residents on census day. It is the only survey that provides a detailed picture of the entire population, and is unique because it covers everyone at the same time and asks the same core questions everywhere, making it easy to compare different parts of the country.
Try the dedicated Census 2011 section of the LRO for more information about the latest Census.
The information provided by the census allows central and local Government, health authorities and many other organisations to target their resources more effectively, and to plan housing, education, health and transport services for years to come. The first release of data from the 2011 Census was in July 2012. The LRO will continue to provide background information and a localised view of the data from the latest Census as it is released over the next few years, to give a clear picture of what the Census shows in Lincolnshire.
GP Registration populations
These figures show the number of people registered with a general practice. They differ from the ONS Mid-Year population estimates, although they are factored into them. The Mid-Year estimates produced by ONS thus show the official population estimates. There are times when GP Registered populations may provide additional useful information in particular circumstances, as they provide an actual count of people. However, GP Registrations may slightly over or under estimate populations. For example, people may leave the area but not de-register from their GP or may not register with a GP at all.
The most authoritative population estimates come from the census. Population estimates from the census are updated each year to produce mid-year population estimates for the years in between each census. Population estimates are produced annually by ONS for England and Wales, National and by Local Authority. They tell us how many people live in the UK as a whole and in each local area, and provide information on age-sex structure of the population in these areas. Mid-Year population estimates show numbers of persons rounded to the nearest 100.
The estimated and projected populations of an area include all persons usually resident in the area, whatever their nationality. Members of HM forces stationed outside the UK are excluded, but members of US forces stationed in the UK are included. Students are taken to be resident at their term-time address. Flows of long-term international migrants are accounted for, defined as somebody who changes his or her country of usual residence for a period of at least one year. Short-term migrants (eg. migrant workers) are not included.
Mid-Year population estimates are generally released in the following year (for example, Mid-Year 2014 population estimates were released in June 2015).
ONS population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. Population projections use assumptions based on recent trends and population estimates.
Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue, and figures are rounded to the nearest 100. Projections do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future populations. The assumptions used in ONS projections are based solely on recent demographic trends so the projections do not reflect, for example, the impact of likely future housing development in an area. Projections become increasingly uncertain the further they seek to look into the future, and particularly so for smaller geographical areas. Population projections for the UK and its constituent countries and also for England sub-nationally down to local authority level relating to the next 25 years, are usually produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) every two years.
There is a usual two-year ONS publication cycle for population projections, and the latest projections are 2012-based (published May 2014). They are based on Mid-2012 population estimates (that also take into account 2011 Census results). These latest 2012-based population projections are available on the LRO in the presentation tool and also in this Population Projections toolkit .
Previous estimates and current projections indicate that Lincolnshire is likely to continue to grow, however, the most recent data from ONS suggest that the rate is in fact slowing.
Sources of Population Data and Information
For quick access to population Toolkits, Reports, and Data, use the menu at the top right of this page.
There are a number of sources of population information which are produced by different organisations and in some cases are regularly updated and revised. Additionally, refer to the list of key population indicators below for further information.
The latest count of the population and its demographic
Population Trends in Lincolnshire analyses information from:
Mid-Year Population Estimate (ONS)
Mid-Year Population Estimates by Ethnic Group (ONS)
How the population is projected to look in the future
The ONS released the latest sub-national population projections in May 2014.
These are based on the 2012 population, and projects the population for each year up to 2037.
The LRO has produced a tool to help analyse ONS population projections by age, gender and district.
Local internal migration
Population Trends in Lincolnshire analyses information from:
Local international migration
International Migration in Lincolnshire 2010/11 analyses information from:
National Insurance Registrations to Overseas Nationals (DWP)
Worker Registration Scheme (UK Border Agency)
Flag 4 registrations (ONS)
Annual Population Survey (ONS)