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Population Trends in Lincolnshire

Headlines

  • The rate of Lincolnshire's population growth has increased in recent years but latest figures show that it is below the national rate of growth.
  • In 2015 Boston had the highest net outflow migration figure having 1000 more people leaving the area than entering it.
  • The trend towards an ageing population profile will continue, with the proportion of people over 75 years of age projected to increase by 95% between 2014 and 2039.
  • Projections indicate that by 2039 the population growth of Lincolnshire will be 14 per cent which is below the projected national growth rate of 17 per cent however the population in Lincolnshire is projected to increase by approximately 103,000.

Introduction

This information sheet analyses the latest population trends in Lincolnshire based on the most recent releases of population data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The paper covers current population estimates based on the 2011 Census, population projections i.e. how the population will change over a period of time, and population migration i.e. the movement of people into and out of the county.

All the information is provided at a number of geographic levels. Sources used include the revised Mid-Year population estimates for 2005-2015 released by the ONS in June 2016, internal migration figures released by the ONS in June 2016, and population projections up to 2039. More details on the definitions, sources and methodology used in this paper can be found at the end of this document.

Population Estimates

Table 1 shows the population changes over ten years and for the previous year. Between 2005 and 2015, the population of Lincolnshire increased by 8.8 per cent which is higher than the figure for both the East Midlands (8.0 per cent) and England (8.3 per cent).

All of Lincolnshire's local authority districts have had an increase in population over this period of time. Boston has had the highest increase at 14.2 per cent, and East Lindsey the lowest at 1.8 per cent. All have exceeded the national average except for East Lindsey.

Table 1 - Summary of Changes

Source: Office for National Statistics

Mid 2015 Population Estimate Mid 2015 Population Estimate Change (Persons) Change 2014-2015 (%) Change 2005-2015 (%)
Lincolnshire 736,700 731,500 5,200 0.7 8.8
Boston 66,900 66,500 400 0.6 14.2
East Lindsey 137,900 137,600 300 0.2 1.8
Lincoln 97,100 96,200 900 0.9 9.6
North Kesteven 111,900 111,000 900 0.9 9.6
South Holland 91,200 90,400 800 0.9 11.6
South Kesteven 138,900 138,000 900 0.7 8.8
West Lindsey 92,800 91,800 1,000 1.1 9.7
East Midlands 4,677,000 4,637,400 39,600 0.9 8.0
England 54,786,300 54,316,600 469,700 0.9 8.3

The annual percentage change between 2014 and 2015 also shows the increase in the population of Lincolnshire (0.7 per cent) but this was slightly lower than the national figure (0.9 per cent).

At district level, the highest annual increase occurred in the local authority districts of Lincoln and South Holland, which at 0.9 per cent is the same as the national average. This represents an increase in population of approximately 900 persons. Most of this increase has been in the age group 65+. This trend is apparent across all the local authority districts in Lincolnshire and follows the national trend.

Figure 1 - Annual Percentage Change in Population, Year on Year

Source: Office for National Statistics


For the period 2005 to 2015 the local annual population has increased below national rates. Over the ten year period between 2005 and 2015, Lincolnshire's population increased slower than the national rate on four occasions.

Population Age Profile

Table 2 shows changes in population by broad age group. The proportion of young people in Lincolnshire (aged 0-19) has once again fallen from approximately 23 per cent of the total population in 2005 to 22 per cent in 2015. In contrast between 2005 and 2015 the population of those aged 65+ has increased in the county by 3 per cent to approximately 22 per cent. The two factors together highlight a declining younger population and a growing older population in the county. Over this period, whilst the proportion of people aged 65+ in Lincolnshire has increased by 3 percentage points, nationally it has increased by 2 percentage points to 18 per cent.

Table 2 - Change in Broad Age Groups as a proportion of Total Population

Source: Office for National Statistics

0-19 (%) 20-64 (%) 65+ (%)
2002 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015
Lincolnshire 23 22 57 58 19 22
Boston 23 22 57 57 20 21
East Lindsey 21 19 56 52 23 28
Lincoln 25 23 60 62 15 15
North Kesteven 23 22 58 55 19 23
South Holland 22 21 56 55 22 24
South Kesteven 25 23 58 56 17 21
West Lindsey 24 22 57 55 19 23
East Midlands 25 23 59 58 16 19
England 25 24 59 59 16 18

Although the age distribution across the districts is proportionately similar, there are some noticeable differences. Lincoln differs slightly; the proportion of the population aged 20-64 has increased by 2 percentage points from 60 per cent to 62 per cent due to the influence of universities and higher education in the city.

Figure 2 shows the break down by age group in more detail. Between 2005 and 2015 there has been a decrease in Lincolnshire's population in the younger age groups of 10-14 and 15-19.

Over the last 10 years the largest decrease in population is in the 35-39 age group, which has fallen from 48,188 in 2005 to 37,974 in 2015, a decrease of 10,214 people.

Figure 2 - 2005 and 2015 Mid-Year Estimates Lincolnshire

Source: Office for National Statistics


The largest increase has been in the age group 65-69 where the population has risen by approximately 14,975 people between 2005 and 2015; an increase of approximately 28 per cent. The 85+ age group has also changed substantially, with numbers increasing from 145,279 people in 2005 to 20,811 in 2015, an increase of approximately 5,532 (approximately 27 per cent).

Internal Migration

Internal migration figures in Table 3 show the movement of people into and out of Lincolnshire's local authority districts from mid-2014 to mid-2015. All of the districts show a positive net balance during the year ending 2015 apart from Boston and Lincoln.

Table 3 - Internal Migration Flows, year ending June 2015

Source: Office for National Statistics

2014 2015
Inflow Outflow Balance Inflow Outflow Balance
Boston 2,300 2,900 -700 2,200
3,100
-1000
East Lindsey 7,500 6,300 1,200 7,100
6,400
700
Lincoln 8,200 8,800 -700 8,200
8,400
-200
North Kesteven 6,300 5,500 700 6,200
5,600
700
South Holland 4,100 3,600 500 3,800
3,600
200
South Kesteven 7,200 6,100 1,200 6,900
6,300
600
West Lindsey 5,700 4,800 900 5,600
4,600
1000

Table 4 shows internal migration figures by broad age group and enables comparison by local authority district.

Table 4 - Levels of Internal Migration by Broad Age Groups, year ending June 2015

Source: Office for National Statistics

0-19 20-64 65+
Inflow Outflow Inflow Outflow Inflow Outflow
Boston 500
800
1400
2000 300
300
East Lindsey 1400
1600
4500
3700
1200
1100
Lincoln 3000
1400
4800
6600
400
400
North Kesteven 1400
1600
4100
3400
800 700
South Holland 800
900
2500
2300
500
400
South Kesteven 1500
1600
4600
4100
800
600
West Lindsey 1300
1200
3700
2800
600
500

Please note that figures in Table 4 may not sum due to rounding. The district figures shown here do not sum to the county totals of in and out migration as they count the flows of migrants between the districts and other areas of the UK. These migration figures also exclude the effects of international migration.

Referring to Table 4, East Lindsey has the highest level of population churn in terms of the 65 plus age group, whilst Lincoln has the highest number of inward migrants aged 0-19. The highest inflow of migrants aged 20-64 is in Lincoln however, the outflow for this age band is significantly higher than in any other district. The migration pattern in Lincoln once again demonstrates the influence of the universities and colleges in the city.

 

Projections

Changes in Methodology

These population projections are based on the latest 2015-based subnational population projections released in June 2015 by the Office for National Statistics.

Those using population projection data for purposes of strategic and service planning should note that they vary substantially from the projections released last year. The previous projections used an updated population base rolled forward from the 2011 Census. However, these assumed a continuation of the estimated trends in fertility, mortality and migration used in the 2010-based projections because a revised data series was not yet available to update the assumptions.

The latest 2014-based projections on the other hand use both an updated population base and fully updated trends based on historic data revised using the 2011 Census results. This means that the births, deaths, and migration predictions used in some areas are very different between the 2011 and 2014-based projections, resulting in very different looking projections. The difference is most apparent in the older age groups, such as 65 and over, and particularly in the 75 and over group. Both of these age groups are now projected to increase at a faster rate.

The other significant change is that whilst 2011 based interim subnational projections covered to 2021 the latest population projection figures are to 2039. It should be noted, however, that the level of uncertainty of the results increases the farther into the future that the figures are projected.

Summary

Lincolnshire's population is projected to increase by approximately 70,000 people by 2029 (Table 5) a growth rate of 10 per cent compared to 11 per cent nationally.

By 2039 the county's population growth rate is projected to be 14 per cent which is below the projected national rate of 17 per cent but the population is projected to increase by approximately 103,000.

The rate of change is not uniform across the county. Between 2014 and 2039 South Kesteven's population is projected to experience the largest growth at 18 per cent, closely followed by South Holland (17 per cent). These two districts have projected growth rates the same as or higher than the national average. East Lindsey, however, has a much lower, although still significant, projected growth rate of 10 per cent.

Table 5 - Population Projection Summary

Source: Office for National Statistics

2014 2019 2029 2039 Change (%) 2014-2019 Change (%) 2014-2029 Change (%) 2014-2039
Lincolnshire 731,500 755,800 801,200 834,700 3 10 14
Boston 66,500 69,600 73,700 76,800 5 11 16
East Lindsey 137,600 140,100 146,200 150,800 2 6 10
Lincoln 96,200 98,600 103,000 106,900 2 7 11
North Kesteven 111,000 115,200 122,700 127,900 4 10 15
South Holland 90,400 94,100 100,700 106,100 4 11 17
South Kesteven 138,000 143,600 154,400 162,400 4 12 18
West Lindsey 91,800 94,700 100,400 103,800 3 9 13
East Midlands 4,637,400 4,798,000 5,096,900 5,338,700 3 10 15
England 54,316,600 56,466,300 60,188,000 63,281,500 4 11 17

Proportion of projected population by age group

In 2014 17 per cent of the population of Lincolnshire was aged 0-15 years (Table 6) compared to 19 per cent nationally. By 2039 it is projected that this will have only changed slightly to 16 per cent in Lincolnshire and 18 per cent nationally. In fact at all geography levels the population projections show the proportion of 0-15 year olds in the total population will change very little over the next 25 years.

The most significant changes can be seen at the other end of the age spectrum with the proportion of people aged 65 and over projected to increase in Lincolnshire from 22 per cent in 2014 to 30 per cent in 2039. This compares to national figures of 18 per cent in 2014 and 24 per cent in 2039. Most of the districts also see a change in the proportion of older people in the total population although the figures vary significantly. In Boston 21 per cent of the population was aged 65 or over in 2014 and this will rise to 25 per cent in 2039 whilst in West Lindsey 23 per cent of the population was aged 65 or over in 2014, rising more dramatically to 32 per cent in 2039.

Table 6 - Projected Change by Broad Age Groups as a Proportion of Total Population

Source: Office for National Statistics.

0-16 (%) 16-64 (%) 65+ (%)
2014 2019 2029 2039 2014 2019 2029 2039 2014 2019 2029 2039
Lincolnshire 17 17 18 16 61 59 56 53 22 24 27 30
Boston 18 19 18 17 61 60 58 57 21 21 24 25
East Lindsey 15 16 15 15 56 54 51 49 28 30 34 37
Lincoln 17 17 16 15 69 67 65 63 15 16 19 21
North Kesteven 17 17 17 17 60 58 55 52 23 24 28 31
South Holland 17 17 17 16 59 58 55 53 24 25 28 31
South Kesteven 18 18 17 17 61 59 55 52 21 23 28 31
West Lindsey 17 18 17 17 60 58 54 52 23 25 29 32
England 19 19 19 18 63 62 60 58 18 18 21 24

By 2039 in Lincolnshire, there will be very slightly fewer people of working age and working age people will form a markedly smaller percentage of the total population. Working age people in Lincolnshire are projected to fall from 61 per cent of the population in 2014 to 53 per cent in 2039, while nationally they will fall from 63 per cent to 58 per cent. Similarly all local authority district areas of Lincolnshire are projected to experience a decrease in the percentage of the population who are working age to 2039. This presents a challenge of a declining tax paying population at a time when the need for services for an ageing population will be rising.

Figure 3 - Age Profile 2014, 2019, 2029, and 2039, Lincolnshire

Source: Office for National Statistics.

Chart showing population projections

Figure 3 shows a more detailed age break down of the projected population for selected years. There is very little change over the period in the younger age bands but the graph clearly shows an incremental increase in the over 65 age groups. Whilst the number of people aged 50-64 is projected to increase to 157,100 in 2019, it will then fall between 2029 and 2039 from 151,200 to 144,400.

The changing age structure of the population can be more clearly seen when we focus on the percentage change in population projections between 2014 and 2039 by age band (Table 7).

Rate of Projected Population Change

Whilst the figures for Lincolnshire for all ages show a projected change of 14 per cent in the population between 2014 and 2039 the proportion of the population aged 75 plus is projected to change by 95 per cent. Furthermore the percentage change is not uniform across the county; the proportion of people aged 75 and over in Boston is projected to change by 73 per cent but in South Kesteven the change is 126 per cent. East Lindsey is projected to see a decrease in all of its under-65 age groups except the 0-15 group. Both East Lindsey and West Lindsey will see a significant decrease in the number of 50-64 year olds in their populations of -10 per cent and -8 per cent respectively.

Table 7 - Percentage change in population between 2014 and 2039 by age group

Office for National Statistics

Age Group Lincolnshire Boston East Lindsey Lincoln North Kesteven South Holland South Kesteven West Lindsey
0-15 8 11 6 3 9 12 8 10
16-24 4 12 -1 6 6 5 0 -2
25-49 2 9 -3 2 1 4 1 -1
50-64 -2 5 -10 0 -2 6 1 -8
65-74 23 15 12 31 23 26 35 22
75+ 95 73 82 88 101 81 126 103
All ages 14 16 10 11 15 17 18 13

These figures emphasise the potential changing demography within the population with a greater proportion of older people, particularly those aged 75 and over, compared with younger age groups. In particular, the relative decline in the number of 50-64 year olds in the population should be noted, given this is the age group that is most likely to act as carers for the 75 and over age group.

Sources

Office for National Statistics.

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Methodologies

The Office for National Statistics compiles annual (mid-year) population estimates based on the latest Census of Population, reflecting subsequent The estimated resident population of an area includes all people who The methodology used to update mid-year estimates includes an estimate of the population change due to flows of international migrants. These flows are based on estimates of long-term international migrants (where stays of over 12 months only are counted) therefore this does not include flows of short-term international migrants.

The 2014-based subnational population projections for England provide an indication of the size and structure of the future population, based on the continuation of recent demographic trends and are produced on a consistent basis across all local authorities in England. The projections are trend-based, making assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration levels based on recent trends, usually over a five-year reference period. They give an indication of what the future population size and age and sex structure might be if recent trends continued. They are not forecasts and take no account of policy nor development aims that have not yet had an impact on observed trends.

The estimated and projected resident population of an area includes all people who usually live there, whatever their nationality. People moving into or out of the country are only included in the resident population if their total stay in that area is for 12 months or more. Visitors and short term migrants (those who enter the UK for 3 to 12 months for certain purposes) are not. Similarly, people who leave the UK are only excluded from the population estimates if they remain outside the UK for 12 months or more. This is consistent with the United Nations recommended definition of an international long-term migrant. Members of UK and non-UK armed forces stationed in the UK are included in the population and UK forces Students are taken to be resident at their term time address.

  • Lincolnshire736,700
  • Boston66,500
  • East Lindsey137,600
  • Lincoln96,200
  • North Kesteven111,000
  • South Holland90,400
  • South Kesteven138,000
  • West Lindsey91,800
  • Lincolnshire758,622
  • Boston80,359
  • East Lindsey145,851
  • Lincoln94,419
  • North Kesteven93,801
  • South Holland89,816
  • South Kesteven160,848
  • West Lindsey80,446
Source: ONS 2015 Mid Year Population Estimates/ GP Registrations April 2015 (NHS-HSCIC) More Information