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Population Trends in Lincolnshire

Headlines

  • The rate of Lincolnshire’s population growth has increased in recent years but latest figures show that it is below the national rate of growth.
  • Projections indicate that by 2041 the population growth of Lincolnshire will be 11 per cent which is below the projected national growth rate of 12 per cent however the population in Lincolnshire is projected to increase by approximately 79,600.
  • The trend towards an ageing population profile will continue, with the proportion of people over 75 years of age projected to increase by 88% between 2016 and 2041.
  • In 2017 East Lindsey had the highest net inflow migration figure having almost a 1510 more people leaving the area than entering it.

Introduction

This information sheet analyses the latest population trends in Lincolnshire based on the most recent releases of population data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The paper covers current population estimates based on the 2011 Census, population projections i.e. how the population will change over a period of time, and population migration i.e. the movement of people into and out of the county.

All the information is provided at a number of geographic levels. Sources used include the revised Mid-Year population estimates for 2007-2017 released by the ONS in June 2018, internal migration figures released by the ONS in June 2018, and population projections up to 2041. More details on the definitions, sources and methodology used in this paper can be found at the end of this document.

Population Estimates

Table 1 shows the population changes over ten years and for the previous year. Between 2007 and 2017, the population of Lincolnshire increased by 8.3 per cent which is about the same as the figure for both the East Midlands (8.3 per cent) and England (8.2 per cent).

All of Lincolnshire's local authority districts have had an increase in population over this period of time. Boston has had the highest increase at 12.3 per cent, and East Lindsey the lowest at 2 per cent. All have exceeded the national average except for East Lindsey and West Lindsey.

Table 1 - Summary of Changes

Source: Office for National Statistics

Mid 2017 Population Estimate Mid 2016 Population Estimate Change (Persons) Change 2016-2017(%) Change 2007-2017 (%)
Lincolnshire 751,200 743,400 7,800 1.0 8.3
Boston 68,500 67,660840 1.2 12.3
East Lindsey 139,700 138,400 1,300 0.9 2.0
Lincoln 98,400 97,800 600 0.6 9.5
North Kesteven 115,200 113,300 1,900 1.7 11.0
South Holland 93,30092,400900 1.0 10.4
South Kesteven 141700 140200 1,500 1.1 8.8
West Lindsey 94300 93700 600 0.6 8.0
East Midlands 4,771,700 4,724,400 47,300 1.0 8.3
England 55,619,400 55,268,100 351,300 0.6 8.2

The annual percentage change between 2016 and 2017 also shows the increase in the population of Lincolnshire (1%) which is higher than the national figure (0.6%).

At district level, the highest annual increase occurred in the local authority districts of North Kesteven, which at 1.7 per cent is higher than the national average. This represents an increase in population of approximately 1900 persons. Most of this increase has been in the working age group 16-64. This trend is apparent across all the local authority districts in Lincolnshire and follows the national trend.

Figure 1 - Annual Percentage Change in Population, Year on Year

Source: Office for National Statistics


For the period 2007 to 2017 the local annual population has increased above national rates. Over the ten year period between 2007 and 2017, Lincolnshire's population increased faster than the national rate on 6 occasions.

Population Age Profile

Table 2 shows changes in population by broad age group. The proportion of young people in Lincolnshire (aged 0-19) has once again fallen from approximately 23 per cent of the total population in 2007 to 22 per cent in 2017. In contrast between 2007 and 2017 the population of those aged 65+ has increased in the county by 3 per cent to approximately 23 per cent. The two factors together highlight a declining younger population and a growing older population in the county. Over this period, whilst the proportion of people aged 65+ in Lincolnshire has increased by 3 percentage points, nationally it has increased by 2 percentage points to 18 per cent.

Table 2 - Change in Broad Age Groups as a proportion of Total Population

Source: Office for National Statistics

0-19 (%) 20-64 (%) 65+ (%)
2007 2017 2007 2017 2007 2017
Lincolnshire 23 22 58 55 20 23
Boston 23 23 58 56 19 21
East Lindsey 21 19 56 52 24 29
Lincoln 24 23 62 61 14 15
North Kesteven 23 22 58 55 19 23
South Holland 22 21 56 55 22 24
South Kesteven 24 23 58 55 18 22
West Lindsey 23 21 57 54 19 24
East Midlands 24 23 60 58 16 19
England 24 24 60 58 16 18

Although the age distribution across the districts is proportionately similar, there are some noticeable differences. Lincoln differs slightly; the proportion of the population aged 20-64 has stayed about the same at 61 per cent due to the influence of universities and higher education in the city.

Figure 2 shows the break down by age group in more detail. Between 2007 and 2017 there has been a decrease in Lincolnshire's population in the younger age groups of 10-14 and 15-19.

Over the last 10 years the largest decrease in population is in the 40 -44 age group, which has fallen from 52,439 in 2007 to 41,056 in 2017, a decrease of 11,383 people.

Figure 2 - 2007 and 2017 Mid-Year Estimates Lincolnshire

Source: Office for National Statistics


The largest increase has been in the age group 70-74 where the population has risen by approximately 14,593 people between 2007 and 2017; an increase of approximately 31 per cent. The 85+ age group has also changed substantially, with numbers increasing from 16,872 people in 2007 to 21,753 in 2017, an increase of approximately 4,881 (approximately 22 per cent).

Internal Migration

Internal migration figures in Table 3 show the movement of people into and out of Lincolnshire's local authority districts from mid-2016 to mid-2017. All of the districts show a positive net balance during the year ending 2017 apart from Boston.

Table 3 - Internal Migration Flows, year ending June 2017

Source: Office for National Statistics

2016 2017
Inflow Outflow Balance Inflow Outflow Balance
Boston 2,100 3,000 -900 2,800 3,100 -300
East Lindsey 7,000 5,900 1,100 8,300 6,800 1,500
Lincoln 8,200 8,500 -300 10,400 10,000 400
North Kesteven 6,500 5,400 1,100 7,700 6,300 1,400
South Holland 4,000 3,500 500 4,300 3,900 400
South Kesteven 7,100 6,000 1,100 7,800 7,200 600
West Lindsey 5,500 4,700 800 6,200 5,700 500

Table 4 shows internal migration figures by broad age group and enables comparison by local authority district.

Table 4 - Levels of Internal Migration by Broad Age Groups, year ending June 2017

Source: Office for National Statistics

0-19 20-64 65+
Inflow Outflow Inflow Outflow Inflow Outflow
Boston 600 800 1,900 2,000 300300
East Lindsey 1,500 1,700 5,400 3,900 1,400 1,300
Lincoln 3,900 1,600 6,1008,000 400 400
North Kesteven 1,700 1,600 5,100 4,000 900 700
South Holland 800 900 3,000 2,500 500 500
South Kesteven 1,600 1,800 5,200 4,700 1,000 600
West Lindsey 1,400 1,500 4,100 3,600 700 700

Please note that figures in Table 4 may not sum due to rounding. The district figures shown here do not sum to the county totals of in and out migration as they count the flows of migrants between the districts and other areas of the UK. These migration figures also exclude the effects of international migration.

Referring to Table 4, East Lindsey has the highest level of population churn in terms of the 65 plus age group, whilst Lincoln has the highest number of inward migrants aged 0-19. The highest inflow of migrants aged 20-64 is in Lincoln however, the outflow for this age band is significantly higher than in any other district. The migration pattern in Lincoln once again demonstrates the influence of the universities and colleges in the city.

 

Projections

Changes in Methodology

These population projections are based on the latest 2016-based subnational population projections released in June 2018 by the Office for National Statistics.

Those using population projection data for purposes of strategic and service planning should note that they vary substantially from the projections released last year. The previous projections used an updated population base rolled forward from the 2011 Census. However, these assumed a continuation of the estimated trends in fertility, mortality and migration used in the 2010-based projections because a revised data series was not yet available to update the assumptions.

The latest 2016-based projections on the other hand use both an updated population base and fully updated trends based on historic data revised using the 2011 Census results. This means that the births, deaths, and migration predictions used in some areas are very different between the 2011 and 2016-based projections, resulting in very different looking projections. The difference is most apparent in the older age groups, such as 65 and over, and particularly in the 75 and over group. Both of these age groups are now projected to increase at a faster rate.

The other significant change is that whilst 2011 based interim subnational projections covered to 2021 the latest population projection figures are to 2041. It should be noted, however, that the level of uncertainty of the results increases the farther into the future that the figures are projected.

Summary

Lincolnshire’s population is projected to increase by approximately 57,000 people by 2031 (Table 5) a growth rate of 8 per cent compared to 11 per cent nationally.

By 2041 the county's population growth rate is projected to be 11 per cent which is below the projected national rate of 17 per cent but the population is projected to increase by approximately 79,000.

The rate of change is not uniform across the county. Between 2016 and 2041 South Kesteven's population is projected to experience the largest growth at 15 per cent, closely followed by South Holland (14 per cent). These two districts have projected growth rates the same as or close to the national average. East Lindsey, however, has a much lower, although still significant, projected growth rate of 6 per cent.

Table 5 - Population Projection Summary

Source: Office for National Statistics

2016 2021 2031 2041 Change (%) 2016-2021 Change (%) 2016-2031 Change (%) 2016-2041
Lincolnshire 744,800
766,300
802,000
824,400
3 8 11
Boston 67,700
69,600
71,800
73,300
3 6 8
East Lindsey 138,700
140,700
144,900
147,700
1 4 6
Lincoln 97,400
98,500
102,400
104,200
1 5 7
North Kesteven 113,600
117,400
123,200
126,900
3 8 12
South Holland 92,500
95,900
101,200
105,200
4 9 14
South Kesteven 140,900
146,500
155,500
161,400
4 10 15
West Lindsey 93,900
97,600
103,000
105,700
4 10 13
East Midlands 4,725,400
4,874,100
5,127,100
5,311,400.00
3 9 12
England 55,268,100
57,030,500
59,789,800
61,952,100.00
3 8 12

Proportion of projected population by age group

In 2016 17 per cent of the population of Lincolnshire was aged 0-15 years (Table 6) compared to 19 per cent nationally. By 2041 it is projected that this will have only changed slightly to 16 per cent in Lincolnshire and 17 per cent nationally. In fact at all geography levels the population projections show the proportion of 0-15 year olds in the total population will change very little over the next 25 years.

The most significant changes can be seen at the other end of the age spectrum with the proportion of people aged 65 and over projected to increase in Lincolnshire from 23 per cent in 2016 to 30 per cent in 2041. This compares to national figures of 18 per cent in 2016 and 24 per cent in 2041. Most of the districts also see a change in the proportion of older people in the total population although the figures vary significantly. In Boston 21 per cent of the population was aged 65 or over in 2016 and this will rise to 26 per cent in 2041 whilst in West Lindsey 24 per cent of the population was aged 65 or over in 2016, rising more dramatically to 32 per cent in 2041.

Table 6 - Projected Change by Broad Age Groups as a Proportion of Total Population

Source: Office for National Statistics.

0-16 (%) 16-64 (%) 65+ (%)
2016 2021 2031 2041 2016 2021 2031 2041 2016 2021 2031 2041
Lincolnshire 17 17 16 16 60 58 56 54 23 24 28 30
Boston 18 19 18 17 61 59 58 58 21 21 24 26
East Lindsey 15 15 14 14 56 54 51 49 29 31 35 38
Lincoln 17 17 16 15 68 67 65 64 15 16 19 20
North Kesteven 17 18 17 16 60 58 55 53 23 24 28 31
South Holland 17 18 17 16 59 58 55 54 24 25 28 31
South Kesteven 18 18 17 16 60 58 55 52 22 24 28 31
West Lindsey 17 18 17 16 59 57 54 52 24 25 30 32
England 19 19 18 17 63 62 60 58 18 19 22 24

By 2041 in Lincolnshire, there will be very slightly fewer people of working age and working age people will form a markedly smaller percentage of the total population. Working age people in Lincolnshire are projected to fall from 60 per cent of the population in 2016 to 54 per cent in 2041, while nationally they will fall from 63 per cent to 57 per cent. Similarly all local authority district areas of Lincolnshire are projected to experience a decrease in the percentage of the population who are working age to 2041. This presents a challenge of a declining tax paying population at a time when the need for services for an ageing population will be rising.

Figure 3 - Age Profile 2016, 2021, 2031, and 2041, Lincolnshire

Source: Office for National Statistics.


Figure 3 shows a more detailed age break down of the projected population for selected years. There is very little change over the period in the younger age bands but the graph clearly shows an incremental increase in the over 65 age groups. Whilst the number of people aged 50-64 is projected to increase to 162,300 in 2021, it will stay about the same between 2031 and 2041 (150,200 - 150,300).

The changing age structure of the population can be more clearly seen when we focus on the percentage change in population projections between 2016 and 2041 by age band (Table 7).

Rate of Projected Population Change

Whilst the figures for Lincolnshire for all ages show a projected change of 11 per cent in the population between 2016 and 2041 the proportion of the population aged 75 plus is projected to change by 88 per cent. Furthermore the percentage change is not uniform across the county; the proportion of people aged 75 and over in Boston is projected to change by 61 per cent but in South Kesteven the change is 117 per cent. East Lindsey is projected to see a decrease in all of its under 65 age groups. Both East Lindsey and West Lindsey will see a significant decrease in the number of 50-64 year olds in their populations of -8 per cent and -5 per cent respectively.

Table 7 - Percentage change in population between 2016 and 2041 by age group

Office for National Statistics

Age Group Lincolnshire Boston East Lindsey Lincoln North Kesteven South Holland South Kesteven West Lindsey
0-15 1 -2 -5 -2 4 6 1 5
16-24 3 4 -4 6 3 6 3 1
25-49 -1 1 -6 1 1 0 -2 2
50-64 -2 6 -8 -3 -2 7 2 -5
65-74 14 8 6 16 14 19 24 13
75+ 88 61 78 75 89 75 117 102
All ages 11 8 6 7 12 14 15 13

These figures emphasise the potential changing demography within the population with a greater proportion of older people, particularly those aged 75 and over, compared with younger age groups. In particular, the relative decline in the number of 50-64 year olds in the population should be noted, given this is the age group that is most likely to act as carers for the 75 and over age group.

Sources

Office for National Statistics.

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Methodologies

The Office for National Statistics compiles annual (mid-year) population estimates based on the latest Census of Population, reflecting subsequent The estimated resident population of an area includes all people who The methodology used to update mid-year estimates includes an estimate of the population change due to flows of international migrants. These flows are based on estimates of long-term international migrants (where stays of over 12 months only are counted) therefore this does not include flows of short-term international migrants.

The 2016-based subnational population projections for England provide an indication of the size and structure of the future population, based on the continuation of recent demographic trends and are produced on a consistent basis across all local authorities in England. The projections are trend-based, making assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration levels based on recent trends, usually over a five-year reference period. They give an indication of what the future population size and age and sex structure might be if recent trends continued. They are not forecasts and take no account of policy nor development aims that have not yet had an impact on observed trends.

The estimated and projected resident population of an area includes all people who usually live there, whatever their nationality. People moving into or out of the country are only included in the resident population if their total stay in that area is for 12 months or more. Visitors and short term migrants (those who enter the UK for 3 to 12 months for certain purposes) are not. Similarly, people who leave the UK are only excluded from the population estimates if they remain outside the UK for 12 months or more. This is consistent with the United Nations recommended definition of an international long-term migrant. Members of UK and non-UK armed forces stationed in the UK are included in the population and UK forces Students are taken to be resident at their term time address.

  • Lincolnshire751,200
  • Boston68,500
  • East Lindsey139,700
  • Lincoln98,400
  • North Kesteven115,200
  • South Holland93,300
  • South Kesteven141,700
  • West Lindsey94,300
  • Lincolnshire768,311
  • Boston80,367
  • East Lindsey146,462
  • Lincoln96,946
  • North Kesteven95,386
  • South Holland90,503
  • South Kesteven176,179
  • West Lindsey82,468
Source: ONS 2017 Mid Year Population Estimates/ GP Registrations April 2016 (NHS-HSCIC) More Information